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This market update highlights key developments across equities, fixed income, and the broader economic landscape as we move past mid-year. Equities – The Index Barely Moved, but Beneath the Surface the Rally Broadened July’s headline numbers tell a misleading story, and understanding why is the key to understanding the month.

The US trade deficit narrowed to $73.3 billion in June, down from $77.6 billion in May, as imports fell faster than exports. Imports dropped 1.8 percent to $388.0 billion, led by weaker purchases of capital goods and consumer goods, particularly computers and pharmaceuticals. Exports slipped 0.9 percent to $314.7 billion,

The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 57.6 in July, topping economist expectations and extending the index’s run above the neutral 50 mark to three consecutive months. The reading follows June’s 56.7 and May’s four year high of 62.7, a stretch that has reversed April’s unexpected slide back into contraction at

Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, according to the advance estimate released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That is a meaningful step down from the 2.1 percent pace in the first quarter, and it comes paired with a

June’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release provided a welcome sign of relief, as headline inflation declined to 3.7% year over year, down from 4.1% in May. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.1%, reversing the prior month’s increase and reflecting a meaningful short-term cooling in inflation. Much of the improvement

America’s largest companies are quietly reversing a year of hiring restraint. Railroad giant CSX, Google parent Alphabet, government contractor Booz Allen, and staffing firm Robert Half have all told investors in recent days that they plan to expand headcount, according to a Wall Street Journal report published this week. Booz

What Has Happened Since the Agreement Five weeks ago, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war. The 14-point agreement reopened the Strait of Hormuz, eased certain financial restrictions on Iran, and set a 60-day window to negotiate the harder issues, including Iran’s nuclear

Every time the Federal Reserve signals it is raising the Federal Funds rate, a familiar headline shows up: “Higher interest rates threaten stocks.” It sounds intuitive. It is also often an oversimplification. History shows the relationship between interest rates and stocks is far less mechanical than the conventional wisdom suggests

Privately owned housing starts rose 19.0% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million, according to the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the strongest reading since March and 3.5% above the June 2025 pace. On its face this is a dramatic turn.