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The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its June 16 to 17 meeting today, offering the first real window into how Kevin Warsh is running the committee as chairman. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, the fourth straight hold, and the vote was unanimous. But the

The U.S. economy added 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, well short of the roughly 115,000 economists expected, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent in May. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent on the month and held at 3.5 percent

The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 53.3 percent in June, down 0.7 percentage point from May’s 54.0 reading, according to the Institute for Supply Management. That marks the sixth consecutive month of sector expansion and the 20th straight month that the reading has stayed above the 47.5 percent threshold ISM uses

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure came in above its 2% target in May, largely in line with expectations but higher on a headline basis. Headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 4.1% year over year, up from 3.8% in April. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month

Iran Conflict Update: After the Signing The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on June 17 and 18, and the agreement is real: the fighting has stopped, the naval blockade has been lifted, and the Strait of Hormuz is reopening. What matters now is what the deal

Monetary Policy Economic Conditions and Projections The FOMC is next scheduled to meet July 28th – 29th, 2026. Disclosures The views expressed herein are those of Asset Consulting Group (ACG). They are subject to change at any time. These views do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any other firm.

The Peace Deal Over the weekend, the United States and Iran announced an agreement that ends the war and reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan mediated the talks, and the formal signing is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland. The agreement calls for an immediate and permanent end to

On June 10, 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index for May, showing headline inflation rising to 4.2% year over year, the highest level since April 2023, and up from 3.8% in the previous month. While the annual figure marks a third consecutive month of inflation

Wholesale inflation accelerated sharply in May, with the Producer Price Index for final demand rising 1.1 percent on the month, pushing the 12-month rate to 6.5 percent, the highest annual reading since November 2022. Both figures came in above consensus expectations: Dow Jones surveyed economists had called for a 0.7