Global Economy – The consensus is for global growth to slow significantly in 2023, but there are diverging views on the degree of slowdown and the likelihood or severity of a recession. Similarly, the range of inflation forecasts vary, but all expect a continuation of the recent downward trend.
Equity – Expectations for equities are generally cautious, with some favoring Value over Growth and US over non-US, particularly small caps as being more insulated from a global slowdown. Others favor non-US companies (including EM) that trade at lower valuations. High quality companies with strong balance sheets are expected to hold up better in a sharp downturn.
Fixed Income – Generally more optimistic view of fixed income given higher starting yields and potential that rate hikes will slow or end. Some favor investment grade corporate credit over high yield, assuming the former will hold up better in an economic slowdown with low/modest default rates.
Risks – Monetary policy overtightening, potential for the conflict in Ukraine to escalate, further energy disruption, China growth decelerates rapidly, and/or Taiwan tensions escalate.
Disclosures
The views expressed herein are those of Asset Consulting Group (ACG). They are subject to change at any time. These views do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any other firm.
This report was prepared by ACG for you at your request. Although the information presented herein has been obtained from and is based upon sources ACG believes to be reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of that information. Accordingly, ACG does not itself endorse or guarantee, and does not itself assume liability whatsoever for, the accuracy or reliability of any third party data or the financial information contained herein.
Certain information herein constitutes forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “project”, “estimate”, or any variations thereof. As a result of various uncertainties and actual events, including those discussed herein, actual results or performance of a particular investment strategy may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. As a result, you should not rely on such forward-looking statements in making investment decisions. ACG has no duty to update or amend such forward-looking statements.
The information presented herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase a security. Please be aware that there are inherent limitations to all financial models, including Monte Carlo Simulations. Monte Carlo Simulations are a tool used to analyze a range of possible outcomes and assist in making educated asset allocation decisions. Monte Carlo Simulations cannot predict the future or eliminate investment risk. The output of the Monte Carlo Simulation is based on ACG’s capital market assumptions that are derived from proprietary models based upon well-recognized financial principles and reasonable estimates about relevant future market conditions. Capital market assumptions based on other models or different estimates may yield different results. ACG expressly disclaims any responsibility for (i) the accuracy of the simulated probability distributions or the assumptions used in deriving the probability distributions,(ii) any errors or omissions in computing or disseminating the probability distributions and (iii) and any reliance on or uses to which the probability distributions are put.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Given the inherent volatility of the securities markets, you should not assume that your investments will experience returns comparable to those shown in the analysis contained in this report. For example, market and economic conditions may change in the future producing materially different results than those shown included in the analysis contained in this report. Any comparison to an index is for comparative purposes only. An investment cannot be made directly into an index. Indices are unmanaged and do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees.
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