Market Update and Outlook –July 2023

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Please find the next blog in our market update and outlook series.

  • US economic growth remains resilient, with 1st quarter GDP revised sharply up to a 2.0% rate and continued growth forecast for the 2nd quarter
  • First-half returns were solid in most indices, a result that may come as a surprise to many investors given prevailing economic headwinds
  • The Fed paused its interest rate hiking campaign in June, but the committee still struck a hawkish tone with forward guidance
  • Recent drivers of market volatility have faded with the US debt ceiling resolved and the banking crisis appearing to be in the rearview mirror
  • US Inflation has moderated but remains well above the Fed’s goal; headline CPI inflation fell to 4.0% y/y in May – the lowest since March 2021 – while the core CPI fell more modestly to 5.3% y/y
  • Consumer confidence remains low given elevated inflation and persistent forecasts for a recession, yet continued consumer spending growth has been a key support for the economy
  • The labor market continues to show strength, but some slight signs of softening have emerged
  • Despite continued economic resilience, most analysts still call for a mild recession in the 2nd half of 2023/ 1st half of 2024 given the lagging effects of tighter financial conditions
  • Economic data from Europe has recently run counter to the US as growth momentum there has slowed and inflation remains stubbornly high
  • China’s economy is showing signs of growth, but the strength of China’s post-reopening rebound has so far been more tepid than hoped
  • Central bank policy across economies has become increasingly divergent as leaders try to thread the needle for a soft landing and policy decisions become more measured
  • As asynchronous growth plays out across regions, the risk of inflation and interest rate volatility could also rise
  • Investors will have to remain committed to strategic investment programs, while also ensuring adequate portfolio liquidity and flexibility to reposition as the market environment unfolds


The views expressed herein are those of Asset Consulting Group (ACG). They are subject to change at any time. This report was prepared by ACG for you at your request. Although the information presented herein has been obtained from and is based upon sources ACG believes to be reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of that information. Accordingly, ACG does not itself endorse or guarantee, and does not itself assume liability whatsoever for, the accuracy or reliability of any third party data or the financial information contained herein. Certain information herein constitutes forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “project”, “estimate”, or any variations thereof. As a result of various uncertainties and actual events, including those discussed herein, actual results or performance of a particular investment strategy may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. As a result, you should not rely on such forward-looking statements in making investment decisions. ACG has no duty to update or amend such forward-looking statements. The information presented herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase a security.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Given the inherent volatility of the securities markets, you should not assume that your investments will experience returns comparable to those shown in the analysis contained in this report. For example, market and economic conditions may change in the future producing materially different results than those shown included in the analysis contained in this report. Any comparison to an index is for comparative purposes only. An investment cannot be made directly into an index. Indices are unmanaged and do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees. This report is distributed with the understanding that it is not rendering accounting, legal or tax advice. Please consult your legal or tax advisor concerning such matters. No assurance can be given that the investment objectives described herein will be achieved and investment results may vary substantially on a quarterly, annual or other periodic basis. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

Gryphon Financial Partners shall not in any way be liable for claims and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to their accuracy or completeness or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from them. This was created for informational purposes only. Gryphon Financial Partners, LLC is an Investment Adviser.

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