Market Update and Outlook – September 2023

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U.S. Economy

  • 2nd quarter GDP was revised downward to a 2.1% annualized growth rate, a pace that still exceeds expectations as US economic growth remains resilient
  • Federal Reserve policymakers maintained a hawkish stance at their annual Jackson Hole gathering, emphasizing their commitment to reaching the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target
  • US inflation has moderated but remains well above the Fed’s goal; headline CPI inflation rose to 3.2% y/y in July – higher than June’s 3.0% but lower than expected – while the core CPI fell from 4.8% to 4.7% y/y
  • Consumer confidence remains low given elevated inflation, higher interest rates, and forecasts for a recession, yet continued consumer spending growth has been a key support for the economy
  • The labor market continues to show strength, but signs of softening have emerged
  • Strong economic data has quieted recession calls in recent months, with more economists now calling for a ‘soft landing,’ however, economic headwinds are building, including the restart of student loan payments, dwindling excess savings, and the accumulating effects of higher interest rates

Non U.S. Economy

  • Economic data from Europe has recently lagged that of the US as growth momentum there has slowed and inflation remains stubbornly high in some markets
  • China’s post-reopening economy continues to struggle with falling exports, a weak property sector, and the economy experiencing deflation in August
  • Central bank policy across economies has become more divergent as a variety of inflation and growth results play out globally


  • The global equity rally stalled in August as resilient economic data and hawkish Fed messaging raised expectations for ‘higher for longer’ interest rates
  • Recent drivers of market volatility have faded with the US debt ceiling resolved and the banking crisis appearing to be in the rearview mirror
  • As asynchronous growth plays out across regions, the risk of inflation and interest rate volatility could also rise
  • Investors will have to remain committed to strategic investment programs, while also ensuring adequate portfolio liquidity and flexibility to reposition as the market environment unfolds


The views expressed herein are those of Asset Consulting Group (ACG). They are subject to change at any time. These views do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any other firm. This report was prepared by ACG for you at your request. Although the information presented herein has been obtained from and is based upon sources ACG believes to be reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of that information. Accordingly, ACG does not itself endorse or guarantee, and does not itself assume liability whatsoever for, the accuracy or reliability of any third party data or the financial information contained herein.

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© 2023 Asset Consulting Group. All Rights Reserved. Asset Consulting Group is the sole owner of all rights, title, and interest to the materials, methodologies, techniques, and processes set forth herein, including any and all intellectual property rights. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored, or transmitted by any means without the express written consent of Asset Consulting Group.

Gryphon Financial Partners shall not in any way be liable for claims and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to their accuracy or completeness or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from them. This was created for informational purposes only. Gryphon Financial Partners, LLC is an Investment Adviser.

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