September 20th FOMC Follow-Up

Share this Post:


  • The FOMC announced yesterday it will leave the Federal Funds target rate unchanged at a range of 5.25 – 5.50%. This was a unanimous decision by the Committee and was consistent with market expectations heading into the meeting.
  • This is the second meeting this year at which the FOMC chose not to raise rates. The Committee previously kept rates unchanged at the June meeting.
  • The Fed’s new Summary of Economic Projections communicated higher expectations for the projected policy path for the Federal Funds rate (the dot plot) going forward in 2024 and 2025. This change in expectations added 0.5% to the year-end 2024 and 2025 rate projections. The dot plot continues to project an additional rate hike before the end of this year.
  • During the press conference, Fed Chair Powell stated the committee is “in a position to proceed carefully in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate.”
  • Following the announcement, bond yields rose modestly across most of the yield curve. Equity markets closed the day down, with the S&P 500 down 0.94% as investors digested the Fed’s “higher for longer” dot plot.

Economic Conditions

  • Revised economic projections suggested a significant increase in GDP expectations relative to the June report. 2023 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, compared with just 1.0% in the projection from June. Likewise, the GDP projection for 2024 increased from 1.1% to 1.5%.
  • In line with the Fed’s higher GDP projection, the projected unemployment rate for 2023 was reduced from 4.1% in the June projection to 3.8% in the current version. 2024 and 2025 projections received a larger 0.4% reduction in unemployment expectations.
  • Chairman Powell suggested during his opening remarks at the press conference that FOMC participants expect the labor market to continue to rebalance toward equilibrium, “easing upward pressures on inflation.”
  • Revisions to inflation projections were relatively small, with PCE inflation up 0.1% for 2023 and 2025, while the Core PCE inflation projection declined 0.2% for 2023 and increased 0.1% for 2025. 2024 inflation expectations were unchanged from June.

The FOMC is next scheduled to meet October 31 – November 1, 2023.


The views expressed herein are those of Asset Consulting Group (ACG). They are subject to change at any time. These views do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any other firm.

This report was prepared by ACG for you at your request. Although the information presented herein has been obtained from and is based upon sources ACG believes to be reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of that information. Accordingly, ACG does not itself endorse or guarantee, and does not itself assume liability whatsoever for, the accuracy or reliability of any third party data or the financial information contained herein.

Certain information herein constitutes forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “project”, “estimate”, or any variations thereof. As a result of various uncertainties and actual events, including those discussed herein, actual results or performance of a particular investment strategy may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. As a result, you should not rely on such forward-looking statements in making investment decisions. ACG has no duty to update or amend such forward-looking statements.

The information presented herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase a security.

Please be aware that there are inherent limitations to all financial models, including Monte Carlo Simulations. Monte Carlo Simulations are a tool used to analyze a range of possible outcomes and assist in making educated asset allocation decisions. Monte Carlo Simulations cannot predict the future or eliminate investment risk. The output of the Monte Carlo Simulation is based on ACG’s capital market assumptions that are derived from proprietary models based upon well-recognized financial principles and reasonable estimates about relevant future market conditions. Capital market assumptions based on other models or different estimates may yield different results. ACG expressly disclaims any responsibility for (i) the accuracy of the simulated probability distributions or the assumptions used in deriving the probability distributions, (ii) any errors or omissions in computing or disseminating the probability distributions and (iii) and any reliance on or uses to which the probability distributions are put.

The projections or other information generated by ACG regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Judgments and approximations are a necessary and integral part of constructing projected returns. Any estimate of what could have been an investment strategy’s performance is likely to differ from what the strategy would actually have yielded had it been in existence during the relevant period. The source and use of data and the arithmetic operations used for calculating projected returns may be incorrect, inappropriate, flawed or otherwise deficient.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Given the inherent volatility of the securities markets, you should not assume that your investments will experience returns comparable to those shown in the analysis contained in this report. For example, market and economic conditions may change in the future producing materially different results than those shown included in the analysis contained in this report. Any comparison to an index is for comparative purposes only. An investment cannot be made directly into an index. Indices are unmanaged and do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees.

This report is distributed with the understanding that it is not rendering accounting, legal or tax advice. Please consult your legal or tax advisor concerning such matters. No assurance can be given that the investment objectives described herein will be achieved and investment results may vary substantially on a quarterly, annual or other periodic basis. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

Gryphon Financial Partners shall not in any way be liable for claims and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to their accuracy or completeness or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from them. This was created for informational purposes only. Gryphon Financial Partners, LLC is an Investment Adviser.

Share this post:

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This website uses cookies to ensure you get the best experience.  Learn more

Skip to content