The expected public offerings of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are shaping up as the defining IPO events of 2026. Taken together, they could become some of the largest listings in market history, with reported private or targeted valuations ranging from the high hundreds of billions of dollars to well above $1 trillion. For investors, the key issue is not only whether these deals will be successful, but how their size and timing could affect broad stock market returns, trading liquidity, sector leadership, and capital flows across the equity market.
Why these IPOs matter
These three companies sit at the intersection of the two most powerful narratives in today’s market: artificial intelligence and next-generation infrastructure. SpaceX represents a blend of launch services, satellite communications, and AI-adjacent computing demand through Starlink and related infrastructure, while OpenAI and Anthropic are central to the commercial race for frontier AI models. Because investors have already rewarded a narrow set of AI-linked public companies, any large new listing in this theme has the potential to redirect capital and reshape benchmark leadership. These are not ordinary IPOs; they are potential liquidity events large enough to influence how investors allocate cash across the entire equity complex.
Status of the three IPO candidates– SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI
SpaceX has publicly revealed plans to go public in the US, with a listing on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX. The company is targeting IPO pricing around June 11. Various reports suggest SpaceX is seeking to raise an estimated $75 billion, implying a valuation between $1 trillion and $2 trillion. If it lists anywhere near those figures, SpaceX could become the largest IPO ever and immediately command significant index, ETF, and institutional attention.
Anthropic has moved from speculation to a more concrete step toward public markets. On June 1 Anthropic confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, with the company seeking to move ahead of OpenAI in the race to tap public markets. Contemporaneous reporting said Anthropic had recently reached a private valuation approaching $965 billion, underscoring how rapidly investor expectations around AI monetization have expanded.
OpenAI is also preparing for a potentially historic debut, with the IPO slated to launch as early as September 2026. The company is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on draft IPO materials, Analysts have framed the company’s potential valuation near $1 trillion. Given OpenAI’s role in enterprise AI software, infrastructure demand, and platform ecosystems, its eventual public valuation could become a major reference point for the entire software and AI trade.
How IPOs can affect stock market returns
In the short run, mega-IPO activity often supports market returns through sentiment, narrative reinforcement, and renewed risk appetite. A successful SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic offering would signal that investors remain willing to fund large-scale growth stories at premium valuations, which could lift adjacent sectors such as software, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, aerospace, and communications.
There is also a wealth effect channel. These offerings could generate extraordinary wealth for founders, employees, venture investors, and Wall Street intermediaries. Historically, large liquidity events can recycle capital into other public and private assets, supporting risk-taking and potentially lifting returns in sectors linked to innovation, venture finance, and high-growth equities.
The longer-term effect on returns is more mixed. If these companies come public at extremely aggressive valuations, the market may initially celebrate the listings but later demand proof of durable margins, free cash flow, and capital discipline.
For the broader indexes, much depends on whether these IPOs broaden leadership or simply deepen concentration. If the listings attract incremental capital into equities, they may expand market breadth and create new large-cap vehicles for investors who want AI exposure beyond the current narrow group of dominant names. But if investors merely rotate money out of existing mega-cap technology holdings to buy the new entrants, implications for market returns may be more difficult to gauge.
How IPOs can affect market liquidity
The most immediate liquidity effect is straightforward: mega-IPOs absorb cash. It is probable that U.S. funds are already setting aside cash as SpaceX and OpenAI moved closer to going public, which suggests portfolio managers may trim existing positions in advance to fund allocations to the new issues. That process can temporarily drain trading liquidity from other stocks, especially in crowded growth sectors, and create short-term pressure on prices ahead of the deals.
At the same time, successful IPOs can improve market liquidity after listing. When a company decides to go public, the event itself is a major liquidity event because public trading reduces information asymmetry, widens the investor base, and creates an active secondary market for shares. For the companies themselves, that means a lower cost of capital and more flexibility to fund infrastructure, acquisitions, and talent competition using stock as currency.
For the market, the net liquidity outcome depends on timing. Before pricing, liquidity can tighten as investors hoard cash for allocations; after successful deals begin trading, liquidity can improve because more high-interest securities are available for active trading, market-making, derivatives activity, and index inclusion over time. In effect, these IPOs may create a short-term liquidity vacuum followed by a medium-term expansion in tradable market depth.
One additional consideration is crowding. Because these companies are tied to the hottest investment themes in the market, they may draw outsized demand from active managers, hedge funds, retail investors, and thematic ETFs. That can increase turnover and visibility, but it can also amplify volatility if expectations become detached from operating fundamentals.
Likely scenarios for investors
A bullish scenario would involve orderly IPO pricing, strong aftermarket performance, and evidence that public investors are willing to support high-growth AI and infrastructure issuers without forcing a broad derating in existing technology stocks. In that case, these offerings could lift overall market sentiment, reopen the IPO window for other issuers, and improve liquidity conditions for growth capital more generally. That would support returns in adjacent sectors and reinforce the idea that the U.S. equity market remains the deepest destination for scaling frontier technology businesses.
A neutral scenario would involve a large reshuffling of capital rather than a net increase in equity demand. Investors might sell portions of Nvidia, Microsoft, AI software, communications, or aerospace holdings to make room for the new listings, producing winners and losers within the same theme but only a modest effect on the broad indexes. In that case, liquidity is redistributed rather than meaningfully expanded in the near term.
A bearish scenario would involve overpricing, volatile post-IPO trading, and a broader reassessment of private-market AI valuations. If one or more deals struggle after launch, investor appetite for richly valued growth stocks could weaken, dragging on multiples and reducing issuance momentum across the IPO calendar. Given the sheer size of these IPO’s, disappointment in even one of these deals could ripple through both sentiment and market liquidity.
Implications for Portfolio Strategy
For long-term investors, these IPOs are best understood as a test of the market’s capacity to absorb massive new supply. The offering terms, lockup structures, float size, use of proceeds, and early trading behavior will matter as much as the headline valuation. Investors should also distinguish between enthusiasm around AI adoption and the separate question of whether public shareholders are being asked to pay too much for that growth at the point of listing.
Final Assessment
The IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI represent one of the most significant capital-markets developments of 2026. Gryphon Financial Partners is monitoring these developments closely and will continue keeping clients informed as more details emerge.
Disclosure
This material is provided by Gryphon Financial Partners, LLC (“Gryphon”) for informational purposes only. It is not intended as a substitute for personalized investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Facts presented have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, though Gryphon cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. Gryphon does not provide tax, accounting, or legal advice. Individuals should seek such guidance from qualified professionals based on their specific circumstances.