One of the more important macro developments in 2026 has been the quiet but persistent decline in underlying inflation and notably, Truflation identified this shift well before it showed up in official CPI data. As of early April, Truflation’s real-time inflation gauge was running at roughly 1.3%–1.7% year over year, while official CPI remained elevated at 2.4% in February and 3.3% in March. This divergence is not a disagreement about direction, but about timing: Truflation, which aggregates over 13–15 million daily price points across 30+ sources, captures inflation as it happens, whereas CPI reflects a lagged, smoothed view of the economy. The result is a consistent pattern where Truflation leads, CPI follows.
The clearest example of this dynamic is housing, which remains the single largest and most distorted component of CPI. Shelter accounts for roughly one-third of the index, yet it is calculated using Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), a survey-based estimate updated on a six-month rolling basis. In March 2026, CPI shelter was still rising at 3.0% year over year, contributing heavily to the headline number, despite the fact that real-time housing indicators had already cooled materially. This methodological lag effectively locks in prior inflation into current readings, delaying the recognition of turning points in official data.
Meanwhile, real-time housing data tells a very different story, one of clear and ongoing disinflation. Zillow reports that U.S. rents rose just 1.8% year over year in March, with average rents around $1,910, while Apartment List shows rents down 1.7% year over year at a median of $1,363. Concessions are also rising, with nearly 40% of listings offering incentives, and multifamily rent growth has slowed to roughly 1.4% annually, down sharply from the ~16% peak in 2022. These are precisely the types of real-time shifts that Truflation captures immediately but which take months to appear in CPI.
The complication and the key risk to this disinflation narrative is energy. In March, the BLS reported that energy prices rose 12.5% year over year, with gasoline up 18.9% YoY and 21.2% month over month, pushing headline CPI back up to 3.3%. While core inflation remained more contained at 2.6%, this highlights an important point: energy can quickly disrupt an otherwise improving inflation backdrop. Because Truflation incorporates real-time commodity and retail fuel data, a sustained rise in oil and gasoline prices would feed through rapidly into its index, potentially reversing some of the recent disinflation signal. In other words, while Truflation has been leading on the way down, it would also be the first to reflect any renewed inflation pressure.
For investors, the implication is twofold. First, underlying disinflation remains intact, particularly in housing and goods, and should continue to pull CPI lower over time. Second, the path is unlikely to be linear. The gap between real-time inflation measures and official data will persist, and exogenous shocks, especially in energy could temporarily reaccelerate both Truflation and CPI. Navigating this environment will require focusing less on single data points and more on the broader trend: a transition from peak inflation toward a more volatile, but ultimately lower, inflation regime.
Sources: Truflation; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); Zillow Research
Disclosure
This material is provided by Gryphon Financial Partners, LLC (“Gryphon”) for informational purposes only. It is not intended as a substitute for personalized investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Facts presented have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, though Gryphon cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. Gryphon does not provide tax, accounting, or legal advice. Individuals should seek such guidance from qualified professionals based on their specific circumstances.