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On April 30, 2026, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, delivered a meaningful upside surprise, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains stubbornly above target. Headline PCE rose to 3.5% year over year, up from 2.8% the prior month, while core PCE, which excludes food and

One of the more important macro developments in 2026 has been the quiet but persistent decline in underlying inflation and notably, Truflation identified this shift well before it showed up in official CPI data. As of early April, Truflation’s real-time inflation gauge was running at roughly 1.3%–1.7% year over year,

First-quarter earnings season is shaping up to be another strong showing for U.S. equities, but the underlying composition of that growth tells a more nuanced story. Consensus expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth have held relatively steady in the low-to-mid teens, roughly in line with the ~13–14% range tracked by

Earnings season for Q1 2026 has kicked off with the financials sector once again setting the tone for the broader market—and early results suggest a combination of strong capital markets activity, resilient consumers, and still-elevated interest rate benefits, albeit with growing macro uncertainty. Consensus expectations heading into the quarter called

The price-to-earnings ratio has long been one of the most widely used valuation metrics in equity markets, but its interpretation has evolved meaningfully over time. In the post-war period, the S&P 500 typically traded at a trailing P/E in the low-to-mid teens, reflecting a market environment characterized by higher interest

Existing-home sales are best understood as a turnover metric, not a pure demand proxy. In the mid-2000s credit boom, turnover was supercharged by speculative demand, easy mortgage credit, and an expanding stock of vacant-for-sale homes; annual existing-home sales reached 7.072 million in 2005, while the homeowner vacancy rate was roughly

Please find the next blog in our monthly series that provides a snapshot of the markets and the state of the economy. Economic Overview Market Returns Asset Class Valuations – Rebalancing Rationale Key Risk Factors We Are Watching Disclosure: The views expressed herein are those of Asset Consulting Group (ACG).

The 1970s Experience: A Decade of Disruption “Stagflation” represents a rare intersection of stagnant growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. Historically synonymous with the 1970s, it dismantled the Keynesian belief that inflation and unemployment shared an inverse relationship. In 2026, the Iran conflict’s energy price shock has revived 1970s comparisons.

In volatile markets, “performance” can mean different things to different investors. Many investors focus on pre-tax returns or headline benchmarks, but the smartest investors know that what matters most is what you actually keep, and whether your portfolio is still serving its true purpose. Here is how to evaluate your investments