The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its June 16 to 17 meeting today, offering the first real window into how Kevin Warsh is running the committee as chairman. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, the fourth straight hold, and the vote was unanimous. But the minutes describe a committee sharply divided on what comes next, with some participants seeing a path to lower rates if inflation eases and others expecting the funds rate will need to move above the current range by year end. Nine of eighteen participants penciled in at least one hike for 2026, while Warsh himself declined to submit a dot at all.
That split matters more than usual because Warsh has stripped away the tools investors normally use to read the Fed. He issued a post meeting statement of just 130 words, cut forward guidance entirely, and the minutes ran a comparatively lean fourteen pages. Several participants used the meeting to argue for permanently paring back the statement’s boilerplate language on economic conditions and the dual mandate, and the minutes suggest that view is gaining ground. The result is a Fed that is deliberately saying less, right as the data it is watching sends mixed signals.
That mixed signal is the June jobs report, released after this meeting, which showed just 57,000 new positions, the weakest print in four months. The hawks in the room were reacting to an economy that still looked solid in mid June. The doves now have fresh ammunition the committee did not have when it met. With CPI due July 14 and the next FOMC decision on July 29, that gap between what the minutes describe and what the labor market has since revealed is the story markets will be pricing over the next three weeks.
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