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Understanding CPI Inflation’s History and Its Current Signal

The Consumer Price Index was created to measure how changes in prices affect the cost of living for the average American household. At its core, CPI tracks a broad basket of goods and services, from groceries and gasoline to housing, healthcare, and transportation. The goal has always been simple: provide

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What Is Worker Productivity?

Worker productivity measures how efficiently labor is used in the economy and is most commonly defined as output per hour worked. In practical terms, it reflects how much value workers generate relative to the time they spend producing goods and services. Productivity growth plays a critical role in economic health

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The Importance of Re-Anchoring Through Market Cycles

Most long-term investment mistakes are not caused by choosing the wrong investments. They stem from allowing expectations to drift after periods of unusually strong or unusually weak markets. When expectations change, behavior often follows, and behavior is what ultimately determines outcomes. After strong market years, it is easy to assume

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When Headlines Move Faster Than Markets

The recent developments coming out of Venezuela raised questions about potential implications for the oil industry. While the event is politically meaningful, early market reactions suggest investors see limited near term economic and financial consequences for global markets. One reason is infrastructure. Despite holding some of the largest proven crude

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ISM Manufacturing: A Longstanding Economic Signal

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index is one of the oldest and most widely followed gauges of U.S. economic activity. Originating in the 1940s as a survey of purchasing managers, it was built to capture conditions on the ground including new orders, production, employment, inventories, and supplier deliveries.

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Recap of 2025 Fed Activity

Throughout 2025, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy evolved from a firmly restrictive stance toward a more balanced posture as inflation continued to moderate and growth remained resilient. Policymakers spent much of the year assessing whether disinflation was sufficiently durable to justify a gradual recalibration of rates without reigniting price pressures. Early

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November Jobs Report: What Recent Labor Trends Suggest

The latest U.S. jobs report provided additional insight into a labor market that is beginning to normalize after an extended period of strength. For investors and business leaders, the focus is less on any single data point and more on how broader trends are gradually taking shape across the economy.

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Market Snapshot for November 2025

Please find the next blog in our monthly series that provides a snapshot of the markets and the state of the economy. Economic Overview Market Returns Asset Class Valuations – Rebalancing Rationale Key Risk Factors We Are Watching Disclaimers: The views expressed herein are those of Asset Consulting Group (ACG).

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December 10th FOMC Follow-Up

Monetary Policy ▪ The FOMC announced today it will cut the Federal Funds target rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.50 – 3.75%, the third consecutive 25 bps rate cut of 2025. While another cut was not a foregone conclusion by mid-November, markets had come to anticipate this

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Trump Accounts: New Tax‑Advantaged Savings for Children

Most Americans now experience taxes as one of the largest long-term drags on wealth. Between taxes on interest, dividends, and capital gains, many investment dollars are taxed repeatedly over a lifetime. Trump Accounts are a new federal savings vehicle created in the most recent tax bill to help families invest

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China’s Surplus Breaks $1 Trillion

China’s trade surplus has surged above a record $1 trillion, cementing its role as the industrial hub of the world. Despite U.S. tariffs, China’s goods-trade surplus has increased month over month, even as its customer base has shifted. Chinese exports to the U.S. have fallen 18.9% in 2025, according to

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November in Review – What’s Driving Markets Now

Below is a summary of the major themes shaping portfolios as we move into year end. 1. Equities: Resilient, but Rotation Underway U.S. stocks ended November slightly higher, continuing a multi-month advance but with notable shifts beneath the surface. The S&P 500 gained just 0.1 percent, extending its winning streak

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